Russell Wilson is coming off his worst fantasy season since 2016. Part of his reduced value is his dwindling upside rush, in which Wilson (last year) had career lows. Even so, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Gerald Everett make for a great trio, mostly because of Metcalf and Lockett. With the Broncos, Wilson now has Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and Albert Okwuegbunam, which is a questionable upgrade, especially at No. 3 receiver.
Wilson has been dealing with a mallet finger in 2021, but his lack of rush will keep him in the bottom of the Top 10 Fantasy QB rankings, even at 100% health.
Drew Lock actually had a higher Air/ATT (10.06 to 9.89) than Wilson and percentage of plays going 20+ yards (10.7 to 9.5), but we know his inaccuracy (60 .4 completion percentage), and Wilson wiped the floor with him in TD/INT (4.17 to 1.00) last year.
Wilson is a major upgrade for all Broncos pass-catchers, which puts Jeudy in the ‘guaranteed escape’ conversation, Sutton as the top ‘rebound’ pick, and Okwuegbunam will be a popular escape pick at the end. greenhouse. Both Sutton and Jeudy have a top-20 advantage with Wilson in town. Okwuegbunam has shown advantages while stuck behind Fant and can reach the low end TE1 range, but I wouldn’t expect much more. Lock actually targets tight ends more often (nearly 7% more in 2021 alone), and Wilson will take full advantage of Sutton and Jeudy, plus an excellent third in Patrick,
before heavily targeting Okwuegbunam.
As for Metcalf, Lockett and Fant, Lock takes aggressive punches on the court and particularly likes his tight end, having a history with Fant. If Lock is the 2022 starter, Metcalf would be in the mid-high WR2 group, now with more inconsistency, and Lockett is sliding into WR2 bangs, suffering from the same worry…unless Lock works better with Lockett than Metcalf, which is possible, and we would reverse their values.
Therefore, consider mid-20s Metcalf and Lockett receivers this offseason: Amari Cooper/Brandin Cooks has volatile pros and cons are what we can expect. Fant, meanwhile, will see his low-end TE1 value trickle down to the Seahawks. Of course, don’t rule out the possibility of Geno Smith starting or the Seahawks bringing in another option, perhaps in the draft.